Celestial Volatility: What the Stars Reveal About Oil Markets as US-Iran Tensions Escalate

Perhaps more significant than the Mars-Uranus square is the approaching conjunction of Saturn and Neptune in the earliest degrees of Aries. Saturn, at 1.68 degrees Aries, joins Neptune at 1.03 degrees Aries—a meeting of the planet of structure, boundaries, and consequences with the planet of ambiguity, dissolution, and collective dreams.

This conjunction carries profound implications for the current moment. Saturn represents the hard realities: the physical constraints of oil infrastructure, the logistical challenges of replacing Gulf supplies, the economic limits of what markets can absorb. Neptune represents the fog of uncertainty: the difficulty of discerning true intentions, the gap between stated positions and actual capabilities, the collective fears and fantasies that drive market psychology.

When these two forces merge in Aries—the sign of initiation, conflict, and new beginnings—the result suggests that any military engagement would be characterized by confusion about objectives, unclear endgames, and the potential for unintended consequences. For oil markets, this means that the initial price reaction to any conflict could prove unreliable as a guide to longer-term outcomes.

Amid these volatile configurations, Jupiter at 15.27 degrees Cancer offers a counterbalancing influence. Jupiter in Cancer points to expansion, legal context, and institutional reach—precisely the mechanisms that may prevent the worst-case scenarios from materializing.

The well-stocked US Strategic Petroleum Reserve exemplifies this Jupiterian principle. As reported by the Atlantic Council, the SPR's current state expands policymakers' optionality to respond to Middle East supply crises. This institutional buffer—the ability to release strategic reserves, coordinate with allies, and implement demand management measures—represents the protective function that Jupiter in Cancer can provide.

Moreover, Jupiter's presence in Cancer suggests that diplomatic and institutional solutions remain possible even amid rising tensions. The Geneva talks of February 26, 2026, exemplify this potential. While President Trump has publicly urged Iran to return to bilateral nuclear talks, the United States has simultaneously sought to distance itself from Israeli strikes, according to Reuters reporting. This ambivalence—pursuing diplomacy while allowing military pressure to build—reflects the complex interplay of Jupiterian expansion and Martian aggression.

The fundamental reality for oil markets is one of oversupply, a condition that directly limits the price impact of any potential Iranian supply disruption. As ainvest.com reports, this supply-demand imbalance creates a structural ceiling on how high prices can climb and for how long.

This paradox—that geopolitical risk premiums collide with bearish fundamentals—finds expression in the current planetary positions. Mercury at 22.14 degrees Pisces governs information flow and narrative framing. In Pisces, Mercury becomes permeable, sensitive to collective emotions and prone to absorbing the fears and hopes of market participants. The narrative of crisis can spread rapidly under this placement, creating price movements that overshoot fundamental realities.

Yet Mercury in Pisces also suggests that the truth eventually emerges through the fog. The physical realities of supply and demand cannot be permanently obscured by fear. Historical precedent supports this view: as The Conversation notes, while Brent crude could spike to $150 per barrel on geopolitical shocks, such rallies may prove short-lived as supply networks adjust and demand falters at higher price levels.

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 provides a relevant historical comparison. Then, as now, markets faced the prospect of direct US-Iran confrontation. Then, as now, fears centered on potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and other Gulf transit points.

The initial reaction was sharp. Oil prices surged as traders priced in worst-case scenarios. But the spike proved transient. Iran's response, while dramatic, avoided targeting oil infrastructure. De-escalation followed. Prices returned to pre-crisis levels within weeks.

Several factors contributed to this outcome. Iran had already seen exports cut to minimal volumes due to existing sanctions, as Reuters reports. They have little to lose in the way of crude oil exports. This asymmetry—the fact that Iran's oil exports were already severely constrained—limited the additional supply disruption that could result from escalation.

The fracking revolution also changed the equation. As The Conversation observes, finding hydrocarbons and getting them out of the ground has never been easier, particularly in North America. When prices jump, the frackers are happy to start pumping. This responsiveness of US shale production creates a natural ceiling on sustained price increases.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of market anxiety. Approximately 70% of OPEC+ spare production capacity sits in the Gulf region, according to zeenews.india.com. Any sustained blockage would create immediate and severe supply shortfalls that alternative sources cannot compensate for.

Yet the practical challenges of closing the strait are substantial. Saudi Arabia and the UAE both maintain limited pipeline capacity that can allow exports to continue via the Red Sea coast and Fujairah. While these alternatives cannot fully replace Hormuz throughput, they provide partial mitigation.

Moreover, the military and economic costs of attempting to close the strait would be enormous for Iran. Such an action would invite immediate military response from the United States and its allies, potentially destroying the very infrastructure that Iran relies on for its own economic survival. The threat may be more valuable than the execution.

The Moon at 3.43 degrees Leo offers insight into the psychological dimensions of this threat. Leo governs performance, drama, and the projection of power. The Moon in Leo suggests that much of the current market anxiety reflects theater—the performance of strength and resolve—rather than concrete preparation for conflict. The public mood, represented by the Moon, responds to the drama of threats and counter-threats, often amplifying risks beyond their objective probability.

Israel has already targeted Iranian gas facilities, according to analysis from agsi.org. But analysts warn that strikes against oil infrastructure would be far more damaging and would significantly impact global oil balances. This distinction—between gas and oil targets—reveals a potential escalation ladder that markets must navigate.

Gas facilities primarily affect regional energy supplies and Iranian domestic consumption. Oil facilities, by contrast, connect directly to global markets. The decision by Israel (or any actor) to target oil infrastructure would represent a qualitative escalation, crossing a threshold that current tensions have not yet breached.

Neptune at 1.03 degrees Aries governs this ambiguity. In the earliest degree of Aries, Neptune represents the fog that obscures the beginning of new cycles. What will Israel do? What will Iran do in response? What role will the United States play? These questions lack clear answers, and the uncertainty itself becomes a source of market volatility.

The Mars-Uranus square, exact in late February 2026, suggests that the period of maximum volatility extends through early March. Mars continues its transit through the final degrees of Aquarius, a sign associated with collective movements and ideological conflicts. The square to Uranus in Taurus—sign of resources, stability, and material wealth—creates tension between the urge to act and the need to preserve existing structures.

Looking ahead, the Saturn-Neptune conjunction in Aries will intensify through spring 2026. This aspect suggests that whatever begins in this period will carry long-term consequences that may not be immediately apparent. The fog of uncertainty will persist, making clear-headed analysis essential for market participants.

Jupiter's continued transit through Cancer suggests that institutional responses—diplomatic initiatives, reserve releases, coordinated ally actions—will remain viable tools for managing crisis. The expansion of institutional capacity to handle supply disruptions provides a counterweight to the volatility implied by the Mars-Uranus square.

Even as military threats circulate, diplomatic efforts continue. The Geneva talks of February 26, 2026, represent one thread in a complex negotiation process. President Trump's public urging of Iran to return to bilateral nuclear talks, reported by Reuters, creates space for de-escalation even as pressure builds.

This dual-track approach—threatening force while pursuing diplomacy—finds expression in the current planetary configuration. Mars in Aquarius represents the military pressure, the willingness to use force if necessary. Jupiter in Cancer represents the diplomatic pathway, the institutional framework for negotiated solutions. Neither dominates; both remain active.

For markets, this means that headline-driven volatility may not reflect underlying fundamentals. The narrative of imminent war can shift rapidly to the narrative of diplomatic breakthrough, and vice versa. Traders who react to each swing in sentiment without considering the structural realities of supply, demand, and institutional capacity may find themselves whipsawed.

The celestial patterns suggest three distinct scenarios that market participants should consider:

First, a sudden but limited military exchange, consistent with the Mars-Uranus square. This scenario would produce an immediate price spike, potentially reaching the $150 per barrel level suggested by historical precedent, followed by rapid de-escalation and price normalization as the oversupplied market absorbs the shock.

Second, a prolonged period of uncertainty without direct conflict, consistent with the Saturn-Neptune conjunction. In this scenario, the fog of ambiguity persists, with intermittent crises and diplomatic initiatives creating ongoing volatility but no sustained supply disruption.

Third, a diplomatic breakthrough that removes the immediate threat of conflict, consistent with Jupiter in Cancer. This scenario would produce a rapid unwinding of risk premiums, potentially pushing prices below current levels as the market reverts to fundamental supply-demand dynamics.

The convergence of these factors—geographic vulnerability, institutional buffers, supply-demand fundamentals, and celestial patterns—creates a moment of genuine uncertainty for oil markets. The Mars-Uranus square warns of sudden developments; the Saturn-Neptune conjunction cautions against assuming clarity; Jupiter in Cancer reminds us that diplomatic and institutional solutions remain possible. For investors and market observers, the stars suggest vigilance, flexibility, and a willingness to question both the most optimistic and most catastrophic narratives.

• Type: News Update
• Read time: 11 min